Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The typical figure of daily murders each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. However, public safety analysts have warned that murder figures could fail to point to better countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

However, security analysts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday killings was also problematic because it might hide periods when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.